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Bangladesh W vs Azerbaijan W — Friendlies Women 2026

Bangladesh W
Bangladesh W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Azerbaijan W
Azerbaijan W
M. Manda 34'
E. Manya 84'
S. Jafarzade 19'
12/2/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bangladesh W61%
×Draw23%
Azerbaijan W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangladesh W
1.78
Azerbaijan W
0.79

Bangladesh W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bangladesh W
2.18
Azerbaijan W
0.85

allows per match

Bangladesh W
0.73
Azerbaijan W
1.38

finishing

Bangladesh W+0.00on par
Azerbaijan W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh W ↓

Azerbaijan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bangladesh W or draw
84%
Bangladesh W or Azerbaijan W
77%
Draw or Azerbaijan W
39%

Winning margin

Bangladesh W wins by 2+
35%
Azerbaijan W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bangladesh W 1+ goals
83%
Bangladesh W 2+ goals
53%
Bangladesh W 3+ goals
26%
Azerbaijan W 1+ goals
55%
Azerbaijan W 2+ goals
19%
Azerbaijan W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh W (draw refunded)
79%
Azerbaijan W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Azerbaijan W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh W attack 2.18 + Azerbaijan W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.78

Azerbaijan W attack 0.85 + Bangladesh W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bangladesh W scores more
61%
level
23%
Azerbaijan W scores more
16%

Bangladesh W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bangladesh W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
S. Jafarzade
34'
M. Manda
84'
E. Manya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Bangladesh W 1–2 Azerbaijan W

Azerbaijan W beat Bangladesh W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on December 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Jafarzade (19'), M. Manda (34'), E. Manya (84').