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Bangladesh vs Seychelles — Friendlies 2026

Bangladesh
Bangladesh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seychelles
Seychelles
3/28/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Sylhet District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bangladesh66%
×Draw22%
Seychelles11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangladesh
1.74
Seychelles
0.56

Bangladesh creates 211% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bangladesh
0.92
Seychelles
0.43

allows per match

Bangladesh
0.69
Seychelles
2.57

finishing

Bangladesh+0.00on par
Seychelles+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh ↓

Seychelles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bangladesh or draw
89%
Bangladesh or Seychelles
78%
Draw or Seychelles
34%

Winning margin

Bangladesh wins by 2+
39%
Seychelles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bangladesh 1+ goals
82%
Bangladesh 2+ goals
52%
Bangladesh 3+ goals
25%
Seychelles 1+ goals
43%
Seychelles 2+ goals
11%
Seychelles 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh (draw refunded)
85%
Seychelles (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Seychelles away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh attack 0.92 + Seychelles defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.74

Seychelles attack 0.43 + Bangladesh defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bangladesh scores more
66%
level
22%
Seychelles scores more
11%

Bangladesh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bangladesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangladesh vs Seychelles

Seychelles beat Bangladesh 1-0 in Friendlies on March 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sylhet District Stadium in Sylhet.