Bangladesh U17 5–0 Timor-Leste U17: Result & Stats

Bangladesh U17

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Timor-Leste U17

11/22/2025

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bangladesh U1797%

×Draw2%

Timor-Leste U171%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangladesh U17Expected goals in this matchTimor-Leste U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.67

0.50

Bangladesh U17

5.67

Timor-Leste U17

0.50

Bangladesh U17 creates 1034% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

5.00

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

6.33

creates per match

Bangladesh U17

5.00

Timor-Leste U17

0.67

allows per match

Bangladesh U17

0.33

Timor-Leste U17

6.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangladesh U17+0.00on par

Timor-Leste U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh U17 ↓

Timor-Leste U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

79%21%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Bangladesh U17 or draw

99%

Bangladesh U17 or Timor-Leste U17

98%

Draw or Timor-Leste U17

3%

Winning margin

Bangladesh U17 wins by 2+

91%

Timor-Leste U17 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Bangladesh U17 1+ goals

99%

Bangladesh U17 2+ goals

97%

Bangladesh U17 3+ goals

88%

Timor-Leste U17 1+ goals

39%

Timor-Leste U17 2+ goals

9%

Timor-Leste U17 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh U17 (draw refunded)

99%

Timor-Leste U17 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh U17 at home — creates 5.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Timor-Leste U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh U17 attack 5.00 + Timor-Leste U17 defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 5.67

Timor-Leste U17 attack 0.67 + Bangladesh U17 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Bangladesh U17 scores more

97%

level

2%

Timor-Leste U17 scores more

1%

Bangladesh U17 at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Bangladesh U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff