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Bangladesh Police vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Federation Cup 2020

Bangladesh Police
Bangladesh Police
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
9/23/2025Federation CupFederation Cup · Round 1Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bangladesh Police25%
×Draw24%
Mohammedan Dhaka52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangladesh Police
1.15
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.76

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bangladesh Police
1.11
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.64

allows per match

Bangladesh Police
1.89
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.18

finishing

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh Police ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bangladesh Police or draw
48%
Bangladesh Police or Mohammedan Dhaka
76%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
75%

Winning margin

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+
10%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals
68%
Bangladesh Police 2+ goals
32%
Bangladesh Police 3+ goals
11%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
83%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
52%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)
33%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh Police at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh Police attack 1.11 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.64 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bangladesh Police scores more
25%
level
24%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
52%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangladesh Police vs Mohammedan Dhaka

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Bangladesh Police 3-2 in Federation Cup on September 23, 2025.

The match was played at Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium in Mymensingh.