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Bangkok vs Roi Et — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok
Bangkok
FT
7 – 0
Roi Et
Roi Et
9/30/2020FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bangkok88%
×Draw8%
Roi Et4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
4.07
Roi Et
0.88

Bangkok creates 363% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bangkok
3.89
Roi Et
0.75

allows per match

Bangkok
1.00
Roi Et
4.25

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Roi Et+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Roi Et →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
96%
Bangkok or Roi Et
92%
Draw or Roi Et
12%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
74%
Roi Et wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
98%
Bangkok 2+ goals
90%
Bangkok 3+ goals
74%
Roi Et 1+ goals
59%
Roi Et 2+ goals
22%
Roi Et 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
96%
Roi Et (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Roi Et away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 3.89 + Roi Et defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.07

Roi Et attack 0.75 + Bangkok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Bangkok scores more
88%
level
8%
Roi Et scores more
4%

Bangkok at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bangkok 7 – 0 Roi Et

Bangkok beat Roi Et 7-0 in FA Cup on September 30, 2020.