Bangkok 0–0 Police Tero: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Police Tero

11/9/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 12Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok39%

×Draw26%

Police Tero36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchPolice Tero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.32

Bangkok

1.39

Police Tero

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.15

creates per match

1.38

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Police Tero

1.38

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Police Tero

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Police Tero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

64%

Bangkok or Police Tero

74%

Draw or Police Tero

61%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

18%

Police Tero wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

75%

Bangkok 2+ goals

40%

Bangkok 3+ goals

16%

Police Tero 1+ goals

73%

Police Tero 2+ goals

38%

Police Tero 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

52%

Police Tero (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Police Tero away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Police Tero defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Police Tero attack 1.38 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bangkok scores more

39%

level

26%

Police Tero scores more

36%

Bangkok at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff