Bangkok 0–1 Phrae United: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Phrae United

8/24/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 3Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok37%

×Draw27%

Phrae United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchPhrae United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.25

Bangkok

1.28

Phrae United

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 106 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Phrae United

1.24

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Phrae United

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Phrae United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

64%

Bangkok or Phrae United

73%

Draw or Phrae United

63%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

16%

Phrae United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

72%

Bangkok 2+ goals

37%

Bangkok 3+ goals

14%

Phrae United 1+ goals

71%

Phrae United 2+ goals

36%

Phrae United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

51%

Phrae United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bangkok scores more

37%

level

27%

Phrae United scores more

36%

Bangkok at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff