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Bangkok vs Pattaya United — League Cup 2021

Bangkok
Bangkok
FT
4 – 3
Pattaya United
Pattaya United
10/19/2022League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsBang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bangkok30%
×Draw19%
Pattaya United51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
1.93
Pattaya United
2.55

Pattaya United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bangkok
1.86
Pattaya United
1.67

allows per match

Bangkok
3.43
Pattaya United
2.00

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Pattaya United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
49%
Bangkok or Pattaya United
81%
Draw or Pattaya United
70%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
15%
Pattaya United wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
85%
Bangkok 2+ goals
57%
Bangkok 3+ goals
30%
Pattaya United 1+ goals
92%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
72%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
37%
Pattaya United (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.86 + Pattaya United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Pattaya United attack 1.67 + Bangkok defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bangkok scores more
30%
level
19%
Pattaya United scores more
51%

Pattaya United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pattaya United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Bangkok 4–3 Pattaya United

Bangkok beat Pattaya United 4-3 in League Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Bang MOD Stadium in Thonburi.