Bangkok 0–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1/31/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 21Chalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok35%

×Draw27%

Nong Bua Pitchaya38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.30

Bangkok

1.23

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

1.15

creates per match

1.34

1.26

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

62%

Bangkok or Nong Bua Pitchaya

73%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

65%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

15%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

71%

Bangkok 2+ goals

35%

Bangkok 3+ goals

13%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

73%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

37%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

48%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bangkok scores more

35%

level

27%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

38%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff