Bangkok 1–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Si Thammarat

3/1/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 27Bang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok45%

×Draw26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.11

Bangkok

1.44

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.11

Bangkok creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.97

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

71%

Bangkok or Nakhon Si Thammarat

74%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

55%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

22%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

76%

Bangkok 2+ goals

42%

Bangkok 3+ goals

18%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

67%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

30%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

60%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bangkok scores more

45%

level

26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

29%

Bangkok at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff