Bangkok 1–2 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kasetsart FC

9/21/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 6Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok47%

×Draw26%

Kasetsart FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.07

Bangkok

1.50

Kasetsart FC

1.07

Bangkok creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 132 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

1.26

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

73%

Bangkok or Kasetsart FC

74%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

53%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

24%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

78%

Bangkok 2+ goals

44%

Bangkok 3+ goals

19%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

66%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

29%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

64%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bangkok scores more

47%

level

26%

Kasetsart FC scores more

27%

Bangkok at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff