Bangkok 1–1 Esan Pattaya: Result & Stats

Bangkok

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Esan Pattaya

8/31/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 4Chalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bangkok37%

×Draw28%

Esan Pattaya35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchEsan Pattaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Bangkok

1.21

Esan Pattaya

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.15

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Bangkok

1.15

Esan Pattaya

1.10

allows per match

Bangkok

1.26

Esan Pattaya

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Esan Pattaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

65%

Bangkok or Esan Pattaya

72%

Draw or Esan Pattaya

63%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

16%

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

70%

Bangkok 2+ goals

34%

Bangkok 3+ goals

12%

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

69%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

33%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

51%

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bangkok scores more

37%

level

28%

Esan Pattaya scores more

35%

Bangkok at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff