Bangkok 5–4 Buriram United: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Bangkok

5 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Buriram United

2/28/2024

FA Cup · Round of 16Bang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bangkok53%

×Draw19%

Buriram United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangkokExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.90

Bangkok

2.63

Buriram United

1.90

Bangkok creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

3.89

creates per match

2.79

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bangkok

3.89

Buriram United

2.79

allows per match

Bangkok

1.00

Buriram United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Buriram United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw

72%

Bangkok or Buriram United

81%

Draw or Buriram United

47%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+

34%

Buriram United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals

93%

Bangkok 2+ goals

73%

Bangkok 3+ goals

48%

Buriram United 1+ goals

85%

Buriram United 2+ goals

56%

Buriram United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)

66%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 3.89 + Buriram United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.63

Buriram United attack 2.79 + Bangkok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bangkok scores more

53%

level

19%

Buriram United scores more

28%

Bangkok at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff