Bangkok United 4–1 Warriors: Result & Stats

Bangkok United

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Warriors

11/6/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bangkok United46%

×Draw22%

Warriors32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangkok UnitedExpected goals in this matchWarriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.58

Bangkok United

1.94

Warriors

1.58

Bangkok United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.89

creates per match

1.83

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bangkok United

1.89

Warriors

1.83

allows per match

Bangkok United

1.33

Warriors

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw

68%

Bangkok United or Warriors

78%

Draw or Warriors

54%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+

26%

Warriors wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals

86%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

58%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

30%

Warriors 1+ goals

79%

Warriors 2+ goals

47%

Warriors 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

59%

Warriors (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Warriors away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 1.89 + Warriors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Warriors attack 1.83 + Bangkok United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bangkok United scores more

46%

level

22%

Warriors scores more

32%

Bangkok United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff