Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bangkok United vs Samut Sakhon City — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok United
Bangkok Unitedadvanced
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon City
10/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bangkok United63%
×Draw17%
Samut Sakhon City20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
2.88
Samut Sakhon City
1.60

Bangkok United creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
2.94
Samut Sakhon City
2.50

allows per match

Bangkok United
0.71
Samut Sakhon City
2.83

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Samut Sakhon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
80%
Bangkok United or Samut Sakhon City
83%
Draw or Samut Sakhon City
37%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
43%
Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
94%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
78%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
54%
Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
80%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
47%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
76%
Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Samut Sakhon City away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.94 + Samut Sakhon City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.88

Samut Sakhon City attack 2.50 + Bangkok United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bangkok United scores more
63%
level
17%
Samut Sakhon City scores more
20%

Bangkok United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Bangkok United 7–0 Samut Sakhon City

Bangkok United beat Samut Sakhon City 7-0 in FA Cup on October 30, 2025.

The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Rangsit.