Bangkok United 4–0 Pattaya United: Result & Stats

Bangkok United

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pattaya United

12/20/2023

FA Cup · Round of 32Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bangkok United69%

×Draw17%

Pattaya United14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangkok UnitedExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.04

Bangkok United

2.54

Pattaya United

1.04

Bangkok United creates 144% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

2.94

creates per match

1.38

0.71

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Bangkok United

2.94

Pattaya United

1.38

allows per match

Bangkok United

0.71

Pattaya United

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Pattaya United →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw

86%

Bangkok United or Pattaya United

83%

Draw or Pattaya United

31%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+

47%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals

92%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

72%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

46%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

65%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

28%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

84%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.94 + Pattaya United defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Pattaya United attack 1.38 + Bangkok United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bangkok United scores more

69%

level

17%

Pattaya United scores more

14%

Bangkok United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff