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Bangkok United vs Lampang FC — League #296 2026

Bangkok United
Bangkok United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
1/28/2023League #296League #296 · Round 17Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bangkok United43%
×Draw23%
Lampang FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
1.75
Lampang FC
1.54

Bangkok United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
2.00
Lampang FC
0.75

allows per match

Bangkok United
2.33
Lampang FC
1.50

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
66%
Bangkok United or Lampang FC
77%
Draw or Lampang FC
57%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
23%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
83%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
52%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
25%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
79%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
45%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
56%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.00 + Lampang FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lampang FC attack 0.75 + Bangkok United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bangkok United scores more
43%
level
23%
Lampang FC scores more
34%

Bangkok United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #296: Bangkok United 1–0 Lampang FC

Bangkok United beat Lampang FC 1-0 in League #296 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Pathum Thani.