Bangkok United 1–1 Kitchee: Result & Stats

Bangkok United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kitchee

11/8/2023

AFC Champions League · Group F - 4Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangkok United49%

×Draw25%

Kitchee26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangkok UnitedExpected goals in this matchKitchee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.06

Bangkok United

1.57

Kitchee

1.06

Bangkok United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

0.92

1.20

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bangkok United

1.40

Kitchee

0.92

allows per match

Bangkok United

1.20

Kitchee

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Kitchee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw

74%

Bangkok United or Kitchee

75%

Draw or Kitchee

51%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+

25%

Kitchee wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals

79%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

46%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

21%

Kitchee 1+ goals

65%

Kitchee 2+ goals

29%

Kitchee 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

66%

Kitchee (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Kitchee away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 1.40 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kitchee attack 0.92 + Bangkok United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bangkok United scores more

49%

level

25%

Kitchee scores more

26%

Bangkok United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff