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Bangkok United vs Kasem Bundit University — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok United
Bangkok United
FT
5 – 1
Kasem Bundit University
Kasem Bundit University
11/7/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangkok United75%
×Draw14%
Kasem Bundit University11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
2.97
Kasem Bundit University
1.05

Bangkok United creates 183% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
2.94
Kasem Bundit University
1.40

allows per match

Bangkok United
0.71
Kasem Bundit University
3.00

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Kasem Bundit University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
89%
Bangkok United or Kasem Bundit University
86%
Draw or Kasem Bundit University
25%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
55%
Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
95%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
79%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
56%
Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals
65%
Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals
28%
Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
88%
Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Kasem Bundit University away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.94 + Kasem Bundit University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.97

Kasem Bundit University attack 1.40 + Bangkok United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bangkok United scores more
75%
level
14%
Kasem Bundit University scores more
11%

Bangkok United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangkok United vs Kasem Bundit University

Bangkok United beat Kasem Bundit University 5-1 in FA Cup on November 7, 2020.