Bangkok United 0–1 Ha Noi: Result & Stats

Bangkok United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ha Noi

2/12/2019

AFC Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundThammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangkok United65%

×Draw20%

Ha Noi15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangkok UnitedExpected goals in this matchHa Noi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.90

Bangkok United

2.10

Ha Noi

0.90

Bangkok United creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

0.60

1.20

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Bangkok United

1.40

Ha Noi

0.60

allows per match

Bangkok United

1.20

Ha Noi

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Ha Noi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw

85%

Bangkok United or Ha Noi

80%

Draw or Ha Noi

35%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+

41%

Ha Noi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals

88%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

62%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

35%

Ha Noi 1+ goals

59%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

23%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

81%

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Ha Noi away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 1.40 + Ha Noi defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ha Noi attack 0.60 + Bangkok United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bangkok United scores more

65%

level

20%

Ha Noi scores more

15%

Bangkok United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff