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Bangkok United vs Esan Pattaya — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok United
Bangkok United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
11/20/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundThammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bangkok United86%
×Draw10%
Esan Pattaya5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
3.30
Esan Pattaya
0.69

Bangkok United creates 378% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
2.94
Esan Pattaya
0.67

allows per match

Bangkok United
0.71
Esan Pattaya
3.67

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
95%
Bangkok United or Esan Pattaya
90%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
14%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
68%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
96%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
83%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
62%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
50%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
15%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
95%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.94 + Esan Pattaya defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.30

Esan Pattaya attack 0.67 + Bangkok United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Bangkok United scores more
86%
level
10%
Esan Pattaya scores more
5%

Bangkok United at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangkok United vs Esan Pattaya

Bangkok United beat Esan Pattaya 3-1 in FA Cup on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Pathum Thani.