Banga 1–0 Stumbras II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Banga

FT

1 – 0

Stumbras II

6/21/2017

1 Lyga · Round 13Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Banga67%

×Draw20%

Stumbras II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchStumbras II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.85

Banga

2.13

Stumbras II

0.85

Banga creates 151% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.35

creates per match

0.91

0.80

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Banga

2.35

Stumbras II

0.91

allows per match

Banga

0.80

Stumbras II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Stumbras II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Stumbras II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Banga or draw

86%

Banga or Stumbras II

80%

Draw or Stumbras II

33%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

42%

Stumbras II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

88%

Banga 2+ goals

63%

Banga 3+ goals

35%

Stumbras II 1+ goals

57%

Stumbras II 2+ goals

21%

Stumbras II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

83%

Stumbras II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Stumbras II away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Stumbras II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.13

Stumbras II attack 0.91 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Banga scores more

67%

level

20%

Stumbras II scores more

14%

Banga at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff