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Banga vs Pakruojis — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
1 – 0
Pakruojis
Pakruojis
3/23/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banga87%
×Draw8%
Pakruojis5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
4.11
Pakruojis
0.97

Banga creates 324% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Banga
2.43
Pakruojis
1.00

allows per match

Banga
0.93
Pakruojis
5.79

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Pakruojis+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Pakruojis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Banga or draw
95%
Banga or Pakruojis
92%
Draw or Pakruojis
13%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
73%
Pakruojis wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
98%
Banga 2+ goals
90%
Banga 3+ goals
75%
Pakruojis 1+ goals
62%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
25%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
95%
Pakruojis (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Pakruojis away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.43 + Pakruojis defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 4.11

Pakruojis attack 1.00 + Banga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Banga scores more
87%
level
8%
Pakruojis scores more
5%

Banga at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga vs Pakruojis

Banga beat Pakruojis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai).