Banga 3–1 Nevėžis: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Banga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nevėžis

D. Zubauskas 88'

S. Yoshikawa 81' (pen)

D. Romanovskij 75'

J. Kasparavičius 37' (pen)

11/24/2021

A Lyga · Round 34Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Banga61%

×Draw21%

Nevėžis17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.94

Banga

1.97

Nevėžis

0.94

Banga creates 110% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 18 away

1.10

creates per match

0.44

1.44

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Banga

1.10

Nevėžis

0.44

allows per match

Banga

1.44

Nevėžis

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Banga or draw

83%

Banga or Nevėžis

79%

Draw or Nevėžis

39%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

37%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

86%

Banga 2+ goals

58%

Banga 3+ goals

31%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

61%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

24%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

78%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Nevėžis defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.97

Nevėžis attack 0.44 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Banga scores more

61%

level

21%

Nevėžis scores more

17%

Banga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Butkus

27'

V. Antuzis

34'

K. Rukuiza

36'

K. Smilingis

37'

J. KasparavičiusPenalty

39'

P. Eletu

41'

A. Lukosevicius

41'

K. Žebrauskas← P. Lotužys

67'

I. Venckus← K. Urbaitis

67'

H. Timite← V. Skibiniauskas

74'

K. Zebrauskas

75'

D. Romanovskij

78'

E. Kugys← M. Butkus

81'

S. YoshikawaPenalty

88'

D. Zubauskas

90+3'

M. Petrikas← S. Yoshikawa

90+3'

P. Srebalius← D. Zubauskas

Banga

Nevėžis

34

99

4

18

91

▼

Butkus

20

Eletu

22

Lukoševič

77

▼

Skibiniau

7

⚽

23

13

1

27

46

19

10

▼

Urbaitis

7

Norvilas

13

⚽

Romanovsk

75

Stočkūnas

23

▼

Lotužys

11

⚽

▼

Yoshikawa

9

⚽

▼

Zubauskas

Manager: David Afonso

41'▲K. Žebrauskas←▼P. Lotužys

67'▲I. Venckus←▼K. Urbaitis

90+3'▲M. Petrikas←▼S. Yoshikawa

90+3'▲P. Srebalius←▼D. Zubauskas

Banga substitutes

24Žebrauskas37Venckus22Petrikas18Srebalius17Anisas21Pliuškys26Jurjonas55Bertašius36Spyčius

Manager: D. Gvildys

67'▲H. Timite←▼V. Skibiniauskas

78'▲E. Kugys←▼M. Butkus

Nevėžis substitutes

17Timite9Kugys1Makauskas16Monkelis19Dmitruk27Obolevičius35Župerka