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Banga vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
2 – 2
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
D. Padaigis 90'
K. Urbaitis 25'
A. Gegzna 80'
E. Kugys 56' (pen)
10/4/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga50%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.84
Nevėžis
1.28

Banga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 94 away

creates per match

Banga
2.35
Nevėžis
1.76

allows per match

Banga
0.80
Nevėžis
1.33

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Banga or draw
73%
Banga or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
50%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
28%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
84%
Banga 2+ goals
55%
Banga 3+ goals
28%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
72%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
37%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
65%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Banga scores more
50%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
27%

Banga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Urbaitis
56'
E. KugysPenalty
80'
A. Gegzna
90'
A. Gegzna
90'
A. Gegzna
90'
D. Padaigis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Banga 2–2 Nevėžis

Banga and Nevėžis drew 2-2 in 1 Lyga on October 4, 2019.

Goals: K. Urbaitis (25'), E. Kugys (56' pen), A. Gegzna (80'), D. Padaigis (90').

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai).