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Banga vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
2 – 1
BFA
BFA
6/1/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10Fabijoniškių mokyklos stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga63%
×Draw20%
BFA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
2.20
BFA
1.07

Banga creates 106% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 102 away

creates per match

Banga
2.35
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Banga
0.80
BFA
2.04

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Banga or draw
83%
Banga or BFA
80%
Draw or BFA
37%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
40%
BFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
89%
Banga 2+ goals
64%
Banga 3+ goals
37%
BFA 1+ goals
66%
BFA 2+ goals
29%
BFA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
78%
BFA (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + BFA defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.20

BFA attack 1.34 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Banga scores more
63%
level
20%
BFA scores more
17%

Banga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga vs BFA

Banga beat BFA 2-1 in 1 Lyga on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Fabijoniškių mokyklos stadionas (Vilnius).