Banga 4–0 Atmosfera: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Banga

FT

4 – 0

Atmosfera

J. Bickus 74'

D. Zubauskas 43' (pen), 3'

K. Urbaitis 35'

10/16/2019

1 Lyga · Round 26Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga59%

×Draw21%

Atmosfera20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchAtmosfera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.11

Banga

2.07

Atmosfera

1.11

Banga creates 86% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

2.35

creates per match

1.42

0.80

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Banga

2.35

Atmosfera

1.42

allows per match

Banga

0.80

Atmosfera

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Atmosfera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Banga or draw

80%

Banga or Atmosfera

79%

Draw or Atmosfera

41%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

36%

Atmosfera wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

87%

Banga 2+ goals

61%

Banga 3+ goals

34%

Atmosfera 1+ goals

67%

Atmosfera 2+ goals

30%

Atmosfera 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

75%

Atmosfera (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Atmosfera defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.07

Atmosfera attack 1.42 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Banga scores more

59%

level

21%

Atmosfera scores more

20%

Banga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

D. Zubauskas

35'

K. Urbaitis

43'

D. ZubauskasPenalty

74'

J. Bickus

77'

K. Gricius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff