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Banga II vs Garliava — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga II
Banga II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Garliava
Garliava
T. Rakasius 32'
D. Kontenis 19'
10/20/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Banga II34%
×Draw24%
Garliava42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga II
1.40
Garliava
1.57

Garliava creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 52 away

creates per match

Banga II
1.14
Garliava
1.12

allows per match

Banga II
2.02
Garliava
1.65

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par
Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Garliava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Banga II or draw
58%
Banga II or Garliava
76%
Draw or Garliava
66%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+
15%
Garliava wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals
75%
Banga II 2+ goals
41%
Banga II 3+ goals
17%
Garliava 1+ goals
79%
Garliava 2+ goals
46%
Garliava 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)
45%
Garliava (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Garliava away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Garliava defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Garliava attack 1.12 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Banga II scores more
34%
level
24%
Garliava scores more
42%

Garliava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
D. Kontenis
30'
K. Pliuskys
32'
T. Rakasius
46'
R. Soares← S. V. Dohemeto
57'
M. Zvaigzdinas← M. Zvaigzdinas
69'
T. Pranauskas← T. Pranauskas
69'
R. Boguzas← R. Boguzas
71'
A. Straksys← A. Straksys
71'
M. Griksas← M. Griksas
81'
Denilson← R. Pedro
84'
M. Bertasius← M. Bertasius
84'
E. Laurinaitis← E. Laurinaitis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga II vs Garliava

Garliava beat Banga II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on October 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Kontenis (19'), T. Rakasius (32').

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.