Banga II 1–3 FA Šiauliai II: Result & Stats

Banga II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FA Šiauliai II

5/13/2024

1 Lyga · Round 9Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Banga II40%

×Draw22%

FA Šiauliai II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banga IIExpected goals in this matchFA Šiauliai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.73

Banga II

1.79

FA Šiauliai II

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 67 away

1.14

creates per match

1.45

2.02

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Banga II

1.14

FA Šiauliai II

1.45

allows per match

Banga II

2.02

FA Šiauliai II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

FA Šiauliai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Banga II or draw

62%

Banga II or FA Šiauliai II

78%

Draw or FA Šiauliai II

60%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+

21%

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals

83%

Banga II 2+ goals

53%

Banga II 3+ goals

26%

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals

82%

FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals

52%

FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)

52%

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

FA Šiauliai II away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + FA Šiauliai II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.45 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Banga II scores more

40%

level

22%

FA Šiauliai II scores more

38%

Banga II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Banga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff