Scoreo
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Banga II vs Ekranas — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga II
Banga II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ekranas
Ekranas
10/30/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 28Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Banga II34%
×Draw23%
Ekranas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga II
1.49
Ekranas
1.71

Ekranas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 68 away

creates per match

Banga II
1.14
Ekranas
1.40

allows per match

Banga II
2.02
Ekranas
1.84

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par
Ekranas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Ekranas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Banga II or draw
57%
Banga II or Ekranas
77%
Draw or Ekranas
66%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+
16%
Ekranas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals
77%
Banga II 2+ goals
44%
Banga II 3+ goals
19%
Ekranas 1+ goals
82%
Ekranas 2+ goals
51%
Ekranas 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)
44%
Ekranas (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Ekranas away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Ekranas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ekranas attack 1.40 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banga II scores more
34%
level
23%
Ekranas scores more
43%

Ekranas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ekranas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga II vs Ekranas

Ekranas beat Banga II 4-2 in 1 Lyga on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.