Banfield 1–1 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

J. Dátolo 82'

I. Díaz 90+2'

5/17/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Banfield37%

×Draw32%

Universidad Catolica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.90

Banfield

1.00

Universidad Catolica

0.90

Banfield creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

1.13

0.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Banfield

0.67

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Banfield

0.67

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banfield+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

69%

Banfield or Universidad Catolica

68%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

63%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

14%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

63%

Banfield 2+ goals

26%

Banfield 3+ goals

8%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

59%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

23%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

54%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 0.67 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Banfield defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Banfield scores more

37%

level

32%

Universidad Catolica scores more

31%

Banfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

A. Maciel

Banfield · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Gregori Anangonó

33'

Daniel Clavijo

63'

C. Martínez← R. Rivas

63'

F. Martínez← D. Clavijo

66'

J. Álvarez← M. Cuadra

67'

J. Dátolo← D. Cvitanich

71'

Agustín Urzi

72'

Cristian Martínez

72'

I. Díaz← A. Rodríguez

73'

L. Alzugaray← W. Cevallos

75'

J. Perales← J. Cruz

75'

J. Palacios← A. Urzi

82'

J. Dátolo↳ F. Quinteros

87'

A. Draper← G. Anangonó

90+2'

I. Díaz↳ L. Alzugaray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldUniversidad

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots8

7Corners2

20Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots8

7On Target3

10Off Target4

2Blocked1

15Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

448Total Passes360

348Accurate Passes250

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3