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Banfield vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Copa Argentina 2018

Banfield
Banfield
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
2/27/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner (Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Banfield83%
×Draw14%
CDJU Gualeguaychu2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield
2.13
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.18

Banfield creates 1083% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Banfield
2.27
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.00

allows per match

Banfield
0.36
CDJU Gualeguaychu
2.00

finishing

Banfield+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–14%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–023%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (23%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Banfield or draw
98%
Banfield or CDJU Gualeguaychu
86%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
17%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+
58%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals
88%
Banfield 2+ goals
63%
Banfield 3+ goals
35%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
16%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
1%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)
97%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 2.27 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.00 + Banfield defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Banfield scores more
83%
level
14%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
2%

Banfield at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banfield vs CDJU Gualeguaychu

Banfield beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 3-0 in Copa Argentina on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner (Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires).