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Banfield Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. — Reserve League 2022

Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
3/12/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Banfield Res.38%
×Draw27%
Belgrano Córdoba Res.36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield Res.
1.29
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 42 away

creates per match

Banfield Res.
1.22
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.57

allows per match

Banfield Res.
0.93
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.36

finishing

Banfield Res.+0.00on par
Belgrano Córdoba Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield Res. ↓

Belgrano Córdoba Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Banfield Res. or draw
64%
Banfield Res. or Belgrano Córdoba Res.
73%
Draw or Belgrano Córdoba Res.
62%

Winning margin

Banfield Res. wins by 2+
17%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Banfield Res. 1+ goals
72%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
37%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
14%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 1+ goals
71%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 2+ goals
36%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
51%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield Res. at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Belgrano Córdoba Res. away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield Res. attack 1.22 + Belgrano Córdoba Res. defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Belgrano Córdoba Res. attack 1.57 + Banfield Res. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Banfield Res. scores more
38%
level
27%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. scores more
36%

Banfield Res. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Banfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banfield Res. 1 – 1 Belgrano Córdoba Res.

Banfield Res. and Belgrano Córdoba Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on March 12, 2025.