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Banfield Res. vs Barracas Central Res. — Reserve League 2022

Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Barracas Central Res.
Barracas Central Res.
3/15/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Banfield Res.55%
×Draw26%
Barracas Central Res.19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield Res.
1.48
Barracas Central Res.
0.75

Banfield Res. creates 97% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Banfield Res.
1.22
Barracas Central Res.
0.57

allows per match

Banfield Res.
0.93
Barracas Central Res.
1.74

finishing

Banfield Res.+0.00on par
Barracas Central Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield Res. ↓

Barracas Central Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Banfield Res. or draw
81%
Banfield Res. or Barracas Central Res.
74%
Draw or Barracas Central Res.
45%

Winning margin

Banfield Res. wins by 2+
28%
Barracas Central Res. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Banfield Res. 1+ goals
77%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
43%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
19%
Barracas Central Res. 1+ goals
53%
Barracas Central Res. 2+ goals
17%
Barracas Central Res. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
74%
Barracas Central Res. (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield Res. at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Barracas Central Res. away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield Res. attack 1.22 + Barracas Central Res. defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barracas Central Res. attack 0.57 + Banfield Res. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Banfield Res. scores more
55%
level
26%
Barracas Central Res. scores more
19%

Banfield Res. at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Banfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banfield Res. vs Barracas Central Res.

Banfield Res. beat Barracas Central Res. 4-0 in Reserve League on March 15, 2024.