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Banfield Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. — Reserve League 2022

Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Argentinos Juniors Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.
2/7/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Banfield Res.39%
×Draw29%
Argentinos Juniors Res.32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield Res.
1.15
Argentinos Juniors Res.
1.01

Banfield Res. creates 14% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

creates per match

Banfield Res.
1.22
Argentinos Juniors Res.
1.08

allows per match

Banfield Res.
0.93
Argentinos Juniors Res.
1.08

finishing

Banfield Res.+0.00on par
Argentinos Juniors Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield Res. ↓

Argentinos Juniors Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Banfield Res. or draw
68%
Banfield Res. or Argentinos Juniors Res.
71%
Draw or Argentinos Juniors Res.
61%

Winning margin

Banfield Res. wins by 2+
16%
Argentinos Juniors Res. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Banfield Res. 1+ goals
68%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
32%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
11%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 1+ goals
64%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 2+ goals
27%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
55%
Argentinos Juniors Res. (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield Res. at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Argentinos Juniors Res. away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield Res. attack 1.22 + Argentinos Juniors Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Argentinos Juniors Res. attack 1.08 + Banfield Res. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Banfield Res. scores more
39%
level
29%
Argentinos Juniors Res. scores more
32%

Banfield Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Banfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banfield Res. 1 – 1 Argentinos Juniors Res.

Banfield Res. and Argentinos Juniors Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on February 7, 2024.