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Bandeirante U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Unknown 66'
Unknown 68', 57'
7/12/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bandeirante U2023%
×Draw24%
São Paulo U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandeirante U20
1.03
São Paulo U20
1.71

São Paulo U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bandeirante U20
1.33
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Bandeirante U20
1.53
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw
47%
Bandeirante U20 or São Paulo U20
76%
Draw or São Paulo U20
77%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
8%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
64%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
28%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
9%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
82%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
51%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
30%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more
23%
level
24%
São Paulo U20 scores more
53%

São Paulo U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
57'
66'
68'
74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandeirante U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Bandeirante U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 12, 2025.

Goals: ? (57', 66', 68').

The match was played at Arena Mario Lima Santos in Brodowski, São Paulo.