Bandeirante U20 2–3 Inter de Bebedouro U20

Bandeirante U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Inter de Bebedouro U20

Unknown 78', 34'

T. Wendel 87', 45+3' (pen)

Unknown 82'

4/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bandeirante U2070%

×Draw15%

Inter de Bebedouro U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bandeirante U20Expected goals in this matchInter de Bebedouro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.46

Bandeirante U20

3.17

Inter de Bebedouro U20

1.46

Bandeirante U20 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.40

1.53

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Bandeirante U20

1.33

Inter de Bebedouro U20

1.40

allows per match

Bandeirante U20

1.53

Inter de Bebedouro U20

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Inter de Bebedouro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Inter de Bebedouro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw

85%

Bandeirante U20 or Inter de Bebedouro U20

85%

Draw or Inter de Bebedouro U20

30%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

51%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

96%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

82%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

60%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 1+ goals

77%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 2+ goals

43%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

82%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Inter de Bebedouro U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + Inter de Bebedouro U20 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Inter de Bebedouro U20 attack 1.40 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more

70%

level

15%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 scores more

15%

Bandeirante U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bandeirante U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

45+3'

T. WendelPenalty

75'

78'

82'

87'

T. Wendel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff