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Bandeirante U20 vs Comercial U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Comercial U20
Comercial U20
Unknown 59', 5'
Unknown 63', 55'
5/18/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bandeirante U2047%
×Draw21%
Comercial U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandeirante U20
2.06
Comercial U20
1.67

Bandeirante U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bandeirante U20
1.33
Comercial U20
1.80

allows per match

Bandeirante U20
1.53
Comercial U20
2.80

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par
Comercial U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Comercial U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw
68%
Bandeirante U20 or Comercial U20
79%
Draw or Comercial U20
53%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
27%
Comercial U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
87%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
61%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
34%
Comercial U20 1+ goals
81%
Comercial U20 2+ goals
50%
Comercial U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Comercial U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Comercial U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + Comercial U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Comercial U20 attack 1.80 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more
47%
level
21%
Comercial U20 scores more
32%

Bandeirante U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bandeirante U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
55'
59'
63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Bandeirante U20 2–2 Comercial U20

Bandeirante U20 and Comercial U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 18, 2024.

Goals: ? (5', 55', 59', 63').

The match was played at Arena Mario Lima Santos in Brodowski, São Paulo.