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Bandeirante U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
Joao Vitor 69'
R. Vinicius 38'
Marcos Vinicius 10'
5/9/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bandeirante U2036%
×Draw25%
Capivariano U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandeirante U20
1.37
Capivariano U20
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bandeirante U20
1.33
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

Bandeirante U20
1.53
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw
62%
Bandeirante U20 or Capivariano U20
75%
Draw or Capivariano U20
64%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
17%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
75%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
40%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
16%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
76%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
41%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more
36%
level
25%
Capivariano U20 scores more
38%

Capivariano U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Marcos Vinicius
38'
R. Vinicius
69'
Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Bandeirante U20 0–3 Capivariano U20

Capivariano U20 beat Bandeirante U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Marcos Vinicius (10'), R. Vinicius (38'), Joao Vitor (69').

The match was played at Arena Mario Lima Santos in Brodowski, São Paulo.