Bandeirante U20 vs Botafogo SP U20

Bandeirante U20

Preview

18:00

Botafogo SP U20

8/21/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 13

40%

Botafogo SP U20

model favours

36%24%40%

Bandeirante U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bandeirante U2036%

×Draw24%

Botafogo SP U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bandeirante U20Expected goals in this matchBotafogo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.60

Bandeirante U20

1.52

Botafogo SP U20

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

1.53

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bandeirante U20

1.33

Botafogo SP U20

1.67

allows per match

Bandeirante U20

1.53

Botafogo SP U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw

60%

Bandeirante U20 or Botafogo SP U20

76%

Draw or Botafogo SP U20

64%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

17%

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

78%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

45%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

20%

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

80%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

47%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more

36%

level

24%

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

40%

Botafogo SP U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Bandeirante U20 sit 24, Botafogo SP U20 37 in the table
33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WDLLL

U20

LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff