Bandari 2–0 Western Stima: Result & Stats

Bandari

FT

2 – 0

Western Stima

B. Mosha 50'

Y. Muama 45+5'

1/3/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 5Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bandari49%

×Draw28%

Western Stima24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandariExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Bandari

1.38

Western Stima

0.88

Bandari creates 57% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 51 away

1.45

creates per match

0.96

0.79

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bandari

1.45

Western Stima

0.96

allows per match

Bandari

0.79

Western Stima

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bandari or draw

76%

Bandari or Western Stima

72%

Draw or Western Stima

51%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+

23%

Western Stima wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals

75%

Bandari 2+ goals

40%

Bandari 3+ goals

16%

Western Stima 1+ goals

59%

Western Stima 2+ goals

22%

Western Stima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)

67%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.79 · 151 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.45 + Western Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Western Stima attack 0.96 + Bandari defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bandari scores more

49%

level

28%

Western Stima scores more

24%

Bandari at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'

Y. Muama

50'

B. Mosha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff