Bandari 4–1 Vihiga Bullets: Result & Stats

Bandari

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vihiga Bullets

5/14/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 27Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bandari63%

×Draw22%

Vihiga Bullets15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandariExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.81

Bandari

1.91

Vihiga Bullets

0.81

Bandari creates 136% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 35 away

1.44

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Bandari

1.44

Vihiga Bullets

0.83

allows per match

Bandari

0.80

Vihiga Bullets

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bandari or draw

85%

Bandari or Vihiga Bullets

78%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

37%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+

38%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals

85%

Bandari 2+ goals

57%

Bandari 3+ goals

30%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

56%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

19%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)

81%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 148 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.44 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.91

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Bandari defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bandari scores more

63%

level

22%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

15%

Bandari at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff