Bandari vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
Bandari43%
Sony Sugar27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bandari creates 36% more chances
Season form · 151 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bandari ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bandari at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.79 · 151 matches
Sony Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bandari attack 1.45 + Sony Sugar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20
Sony Sugar attack 0.97 + Bandari defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Bandari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bandari host Sony Sugar on Saturday, 11 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Bandari vs Sony Sugar — Match Preview
Bandari face Sony Sugar on April 11, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Bandari host Sony Sugar at Mbaraki Sports Club.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.