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Bandari vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Bandari
Bandari
FT
3 – 0
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
3/11/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Mbaraki Sports Club (Mombasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bandari43%
×Draw30%
Sony Sugar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
1.17
Sony Sugar
0.86

Bandari creates 36% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bandari
1.45
Sony Sugar
0.93

allows per match

Bandari
0.79
Sony Sugar
0.89

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
73%
Bandari or Sony Sugar
70%
Draw or Sony Sugar
57%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
18%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
69%
Bandari 2+ goals
33%
Bandari 3+ goals
11%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
58%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
61%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.79 · 151 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.45 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Bandari defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bandari scores more
43%
level
30%
Sony Sugar scores more
27%

Bandari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bandari 3–0 Sony Sugar

Bandari beat Sony Sugar 3-0 in FKF Premier League on March 11, 2018.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club (Mombasa).