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Bandari vs Nakumatt — FKF Premier League 2018

Bandari
Bandari
FT
3 – 2
Nakumatt
Nakumatt
4/3/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Mbaraki Sports Club (Mombasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bandari56%
×Draw25%
Nakumatt20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
1.65
Nakumatt
0.87

Bandari creates 90% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bandari
1.45
Nakumatt
0.95

allows per match

Bandari
0.79
Nakumatt
1.84

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
Nakumatt+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Nakumatt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
80%
Bandari or Nakumatt
75%
Draw or Nakumatt
44%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
30%
Nakumatt wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
81%
Bandari 2+ goals
49%
Bandari 3+ goals
23%
Nakumatt 1+ goals
58%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
22%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
74%
Nakumatt (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.79 · 151 matches

Nakumatt away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.45 + Nakumatt defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nakumatt attack 0.95 + Bandari defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bandari scores more
56%
level
25%
Nakumatt scores more
20%

Bandari at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandari vs Nakumatt

Bandari beat Nakumatt 3-2 in FKF Premier League on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club (Mombasa).