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Bandari vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Bandari
Bandari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1/26/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bandari46%
×Draw28%
Nairobi City Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
1.32
Nairobi City Stars
0.91

Bandari creates 45% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bandari
1.44
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Bandari
0.80
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
74%
Bandari or Nairobi City Stars
72%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
54%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
21%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
73%
Bandari 2+ goals
38%
Bandari 3+ goals
15%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
60%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
23%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
64%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 148 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.44 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Bandari defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bandari scores more
46%
level
28%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
26%

Bandari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bandari 1–0 Nairobi City Stars

Bandari beat Nairobi City Stars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.