Bandari 1–0 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

Bandari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kenya Police

6/12/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 31Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bandari39%

×Draw29%

Kenya Police31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandariExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.00

Bandari

1.16

Kenya Police

1.00

Bandari creates 16% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

0.80

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Bandari

1.42

Kenya Police

1.20

allows per match

Bandari

0.80

Kenya Police

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bandari or draw

69%

Bandari or Kenya Police

71%

Draw or Kenya Police

61%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+

17%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals

69%

Bandari 2+ goals

32%

Bandari 3+ goals

11%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

63%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

26%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)

56%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 146 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.42 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + Bandari defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bandari scores more

39%

level

29%

Kenya Police scores more

31%

Bandari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff