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Bandari vs GOR Mahia — Shield Cup 2022

Bandari
Bandari
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahiaadvanced
4/12/2025Shield CupShield Cup · Round of 16Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bandari40%
×Draw26%
GOR Mahia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
1.42
GOR Mahia
1.29

Bandari creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bandari
2.50
GOR Mahia
1.33

allows per match

Bandari
1.25
GOR Mahia
0.33

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
66%
Bandari or GOR Mahia
74%
Draw or GOR Mahia
60%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
19%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
76%
Bandari 2+ goals
41%
Bandari 3+ goals
17%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
72%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
54%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 2.50 + GOR Mahia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

GOR Mahia attack 1.33 + Bandari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bandari scores more
40%
level
26%
GOR Mahia scores more
34%

Bandari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shield Cup: Bandari 0–2 GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Bandari 2-0 in Shield Cup on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.