Bandırmaspor 2–2 Sarıyer: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sarıyer

D. Karakus 85', 14'

B. Bakir 78'

B. Gunay 23' (pen)

11/28/2015

League #205 · Round 1417 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bandırmaspor52%

×Draw26%

Sarıyer22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchSarıyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.89

Bandırmaspor

1.53

Sarıyer

0.89

Bandırmaspor creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

0.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.40

Sarıyer

1.17

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.60

Sarıyer

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Sarıyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

78%

Bandırmaspor or Sarıyer

74%

Draw or Sarıyer

48%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

27%

Sarıyer wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

78%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

45%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

20%

Sarıyer 1+ goals

59%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

22%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

70%

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.40 + Sarıyer defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sarıyer attack 1.17 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

52%

level

26%

Sarıyer scores more

22%

Bandırmaspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Karakus

22'

E. Bayburt← H. Şimşek

23'

B. GunayPenalty

32'

B. Bakir← M. Soytaş

56'

F. Arikan← S. Yalçın

73'

H. Karabulut← A. Serin

78'

B. Bakir

82'

M. Cengiz← C. Kaplan

82'

B. Kurtuldu← C. Yeslirmak

85'

D. Karakus

Bandırmaspor

Sarıyer

1

Öztürk

28

Sezer

3

▼

Yalçın

99

Çalık

11

⚽

Gunay

8

▼

35

77

26

17

▼

9

66

12

92

26

▼

17

19

6

5

▼

Serin

10

▼

Şimşek

70

⚽2

Karakus

3

Sozmen

22'▲E. Bayburt←▼H. Şimşek

73'▲H. Karabulut←▼A. Serin

82'▲M. Cengiz←▼C. Kaplan

Bandırmaspor substitutes

34Bayburt23Karabulut55Cengiz4Ozden7Boztepe8Kocabal20Mayhoş

32'▲B. Bakir←▼M. Soytaş

56'▲F. Arikan←▼S. Yalçın

82'▲B. Kurtuldu←▼C. Yeslirmak

Sarıyer substitutes

34Bakir4Arikan73Kurtuldu6Çalişkan19Ceylan53Yaşar88Ateş