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Bandırmaspor vs Kocaelispor — 1. Lig 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
12/9/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 15Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bandırmaspor44%
×Draw27%
Kocaelispor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.40
Kocaelispor
1.10

Bandırmaspor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
1.54
Kocaelispor
1.16

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.05
Kocaelispor
1.25

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
70%
Bandırmaspor or Kocaelispor
73%
Draw or Kocaelispor
56%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
21%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
75%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
41%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
17%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
67%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
30%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
60%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Kocaelispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kocaelispor attack 1.16 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
44%
level
27%
Kocaelispor scores more
30%

Bandırmaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor beat Bandırmaspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.